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What are the odds of this much evasion?

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Alright so I was EV training my Absol in horde battles against some Wingull and Taillow. In the battle I just finished, this one Wingull evaded a Rock Slide and two Play Rough attacks. There were no accuracy or evasion modifications, and I wasn't confused. My Absol was holding the Macho Brace. What are the odds of this happening? I did this calculation, but I don't know if it's right.
95+90+90=27
300-275=25
(25÷300)×100=8.333333% to evade all three moves in a row

asked Mar 25 by potato_raichu

2 Answers

0 votes
 
Best answer

Time to do math! :D


Rock Slide has 90% accuracy, meaning it has a 10% chance to evade.
Play Rough also has a 90% accuracy, meaning it also has a 10% chance to evade.
Let's run this through now. Let 10% be a .1 chance, and you have:

0.1 x 0.1 x 0.1 = 0.001%


This is due to probability. Say you use /dice 10 on PS!, which picks a random number between one and ten. With each time you use the command, the chance of picking the same number decreases. Let's let 10 be the instance where the moves miss, and 1-9 be where it hits.

/dice 10: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (10% chance)
/dice 10:
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (10% x 10% chance)
/dice 10:
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (10% x 10% x 10% chance)
/dice 10:
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (It hits (picking a different number) so the consecutive chance resets to 10%)

answered Mar 25 by Le Scraf
selected Mar 25 by potato_raichu
I forgot that Rock Slide is 90 accuracy and not 95 XD You made this so simple for me (I don't do well with math anyways), so thank you! I'm happy I caught that Wingull, even if it has horrible IVs and a Gentle nature, just to remember this moment.
so yeah. 1/1000 chance of that happening.
0 votes

That wingull was just lucky I suppose :P
Hope I helped!

answered Mar 25 by The Trapinchinator