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What is the chance of Pokemon A hitting Pokemon B in this scenario?

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Pokemon B lowers Pokemon A's accuracy to minimum, then paralyzes and confuses. And then maxes out it's evasion. What is the chance of Pokemon A hitting Pokemon B with a move with 80% accuracy?
I'd also like to know what the chance is of Pokemon A hitting Pokemon B without Pokemon B having any raised evasion.

Thanks in advance :D

asked Mar 25 by Mild MagnaAngemon
Practically no chance, and no way that's gonna happen but I ain't sure so no answers for my part.

1 Answer

6 votes
 
Best answer

Maths with KoD!

K so Part 1;

Pokemon B lowers Pokemon A's accuracy to minimum, then paralyzes and confuses. And then maxes out it's evasion. What is the chance of Pokemon A hitting Pokemon B with a move with 80% accuracy?

So lets calculate the accuracy of the move
enter image description here
So using some information, the calculation becomes;
P = 0.8 x [(3/9)/3]
= 0.8 x (3/27)
= 0.8 x (1/9)
= 0.8/9
= 0.08888 (repeater)
For arguments sake, let this = 0,09 rounded up,
.: P = 0.09

Now lets get onto the status conditions
So 25% chance that Paralysis will stop the opponent's move
50% chance that Confusion makes them hit themselves
.: That's a total of 62.5% chance that they won't be hitting you! (25% for Confusion, then multiply the rest (100% - 25% = 75%) by half (50% is half of 100%), which is 37.5%. Add that to 25% = 62.5%)
.: That's a measly 37.5% chance that they will hit you only factoring in the paralysis and confusion.

Lets put them together!
Okay so now comes the harddd bit. How do we put P and the chance together D:?
I'm not actually aware of exactly how, despite looking around, so I'm just going to use what seems most logical - probability

If P is greater than 1, the move will surely hit

So lets say 0.09/1 chance that the move will hit.
= 9/100 chance
= 9% chance

So 91% chance that they won't be able to hit you with the move
62.5% chance that their move will be stopped or they'll hit themselves
So using the same theory as the calculation for Paralysis + Confusion;
That leaves a grant total of...

96.625% chance that they won't hit you

3.3755% chance they'll hit you!

Woah that's low!


K so Part 2;

I'd also like to know what the chance is of Pokemon A hitting Pokemon B without Pokemon B having any raised evasion.

I'm assuming you still want Pokemon A to be at lowest accuracy possible.
We just cancel out the Evasion bit on the original P equation
.: P = 0.8 x (3/9)
= 0.2666 (repeater)
= 0.27 rounded up

So putting that into probability, 0.27/1 chance
= 27/100 chance
= 27% of hitting :>

Then we put that with the 62.5% chance of not hitting from the status conditions again!
So 27% chance they'll be hitting you from move
Use all the stuff we did earlier. We get to a new grand total of;

89.875% chance they won't hit you!

10.125% chance they'll hit you!


Sorry it took so long, especially second part. I threw my calculator somewhere, did everything by hand, and then I double checked everything because I mixed myself up on the second bit.

answered Mar 25 by Sempiternus
edited Mar 25 by Sempiternus
Thanks, that answered everything! I've always wondered what the chance was. :D
haha your welcome :P
There's a calculator on your computer. xD
Lol indigo :P
Accurate answer
If only I was up... gj Kawd