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What are the chances of encountering AT LEAST one Munchlax after checking all four Munchlax honey trees? (% form)?

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In D/P/Pt, you can get specific Pokemon from slathering honey on a tree, then waiting 6 hours for a Pokemon to arrive at the tree. One particular Pokemon, Munchlax, has a 1% chance of appearing on one of the four Munchlax trees.

So, if I were to slather all 4 of the Munchlax trees in my game with honey, wait 6 hours, then check back, what is the probability that I'd run into AT LEAST one Munchlax after checking all four of those trees? (percentage form)

I'd also like the percentages for slathering 3 of the Munchlax trees and for slathering 2 of the Munchlax trees.

If I need to specify anything else, feel free to comment.

asked Jul 20 by Aron Man
Where are the 4 munchlax trees? I know 1 is in the meadow place
The 4 munchlax trees are selected at random every time a new game is started. It is based off of RNG calculation from the secret ID of your trainer.

1 Answer

1 vote
 
Best answer

The odds that you encounter at least one Munchlax in four tries that have a 1% chance each equal one minus the odds that you don't encounter a Munchlax in any of those four tries, i.e.

1 - (0.99 * 0.99 * 0.99 * 0.99) = ~3.9%

You can calculate the odds for two or three tries similarly:

1 - (0.99 * 0.99 * 0.99) = ~3.0%

1 - (0.99 * 0.99) = ~2.0%

answered Jul 20 by Dragonfree
selected Jul 21 by Aron Man
Your calculation is off by decimal places so for 4 trees it would be 1- .96059601 which equals .039% not 3.9% .  :)
No, it's not off by any decimal places.  If you were right, you'd be less likely to find a Munchlax after trying four different trees than you are to find one in each individual tree, which is obviously nonsensical.  1- .96059601 = 0.03940399, yes, but to get a percentage from that you need to shift the decimal point right by two places, because one whole is 100%.
Ah, ok I get what you did now.
Ugh math