PokeBase - Pokemon Q&A

# What are the chances of encountering AT LEAST one Munchlax after checking all four Munchlax honey trees? (% form)?

In D/P/Pt, you can get specific Pokemon from slathering honey on a tree, then waiting 6 hours for a Pokemon to arrive at the tree. One particular Pokemon, Munchlax, has a 1% chance of appearing on one of the four Munchlax trees.

So, if I were to slather all 4 of the Munchlax trees in my game with honey, wait 6 hours, then check back, what is the probability that I'd run into AT LEAST one Munchlax after checking all four of those trees? (percentage form)

I'd also like the percentages for slathering 3 of the Munchlax trees and for slathering 2 of the Munchlax trees.

If I need to specify anything else, feel free to comment.

Where are the 4 munchlax trees? I know 1 is in the meadow place
The 4 munchlax trees are selected at random every time a new game is started. It is based off of RNG calculation from the secret ID of your trainer.

1 vote

The odds that you encounter at least one Munchlax in four tries that have a 1% chance each equal one minus the odds that you don't encounter a Munchlax in any of those four tries, i.e.

1 - (0.99 * 0.99 * 0.99 * 0.99) = ~3.9%

You can calculate the odds for two or three tries similarly:

1 - (0.99 * 0.99 * 0.99) = ~3.0%

1 - (0.99 * 0.99) = ~2.0%