What is the chance of a Pokemon holding a Shiny Leaf?

Question

For those unaware, Shiny Leaf is an item your Pokemon can be holding when you speak to it in the overworld in HG/SS. You must collect them to get one of the trainer card stars.

Comments

One Pokemon may only find one shiny leaf per route. you will find shiny leafs in corrispondance to the leading Pokemon's nature check out this page for which natures go with which routes http://www.serebii.net/heartgoldsoulsilver/shinyleaf.shtml

---

Trust this guy He knows.

Answer 1

Gen 4 speedrunner Werster estimates that the chance is 5%.

Source

Comments

I'll accept an estimation from Werster.