PokéBase - Pokémon Q&A
2 votes
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My friend was browsing through the GTS, when he came across an offer of a shiny rayquaza for a dewpider. Needless to say, he accepted the trade request.
Sure, some generous or just plain stupid people do put up good offers time to time. But upon closer inspection, the rayquaza was a Jolly natured one ( which many consider to be perfect for a rayquaza) and had perfect IVs in each stat.
What is the exact probability of getting this rayquaza in the wormhole? And is this just so highly improbable that it is more likely to have been cracked into the game? Or was there some event which I don't know about? (Sorry for so many questions.)

by
This happened to me with a Zebstrika.

2 Answers

3 votes

There is a 99.99% chance that this Rayquaza is hacked.

6 IVs in every single stat is an extremely rare find in terms of wild Pokémon. The chances of a legendary being shiny, which is also extremely rare, AND having 6 IVs in every stat should always give it away that it is hacked. Jolly Nature can be obtained with abilities such as Synchronize, but this person likely didn't use this method, as it is shiny and 6IV. He hacked it. Also, I don't think anyone is crazy enough to trade a legit, 6IV, shiny Rayquaza for a Dewpider.

by
I thought so, any detrimental effects rayquaza may have on his game?
If you are asking if having a hacked Pokémon can have detrimental effects to the game, I'm pretty sure no. I got wonder traded a ton of hacked shinies and the game is fine.
glitched pokemon can affect a game negatively, but any hacked pokemon that have anything impossible to get on them (like Sturdy Shedinja, a pokemon with 252 EVs in all stats, shiny locked pokemon, and things like Charizard with Dragon Ascent) cannot be traded; the game won't allow it.
This Rayquaza doesn't seem to have anything not allowed, but it is still probably hacked.
Thought I'd give you guys some maths. Best case scenario (Shiny Charm + Jolly Synch), the odds of finding this Rayquaza are 1 in 2,931,315,179,520. That's almost 3 trillion. To put that into perspective, while hunting for this thing, there will be over 1,000 independent instances of you running into 3 charm odds shinies *in a row.*
Honestly, if it's not hacked, it was achieved through RNG abuse, which some people would still argue makes it illegitimate. But there's no way this thing was obtained through regular gameplay.
Thanks everyone, better tell him about it
2 votes

While eXcess' answer is semi correct, it isn't 100% accurate, which I'd like to be.

  • There is a 1/1,4096 chance of finding a shiny Rayquaza with random IVs with NO shiny charm
  • There is a 1/1,365 chance of finding a shiny Rayquaza with random IVs WITH a shiny charm

Source - https://pokemondb.net/pokebase/295208/how-much-easier-is-it-shiny-hunt-with-shiny-charm-than-without

  • Because Rayquaza is a Legendary, he has guaranteed 3 IVs, meaning the rest would have to randomly get 1/31 three times. 1/31 to the power of three is 0.00003356718 (1678359/50000000000)

Let's assume he doesn't have the shiny charm.

  • 1/1,4096 x 1678359/50000000000 = 1678359/704800000000000

Let's assume he doesn't have a Synchronize Pokémon

  • 1/16 chance to find Jolly Nature

  • 1678359/704800000000000 x 1/16 = 1678359/7496800000000000 (Btw the google calculator said I could only type in 9 digits so I had to solve this BY HAND. Please excuse any slight error in this problem.)

1st Possiblility (x) - 1678359/7496800000000000

Let's assume he DOES have the shiny charm.

  • 1/1,365 x 1678359/50000000000 = 1678359/68250000000000

Let's assume he DOES have a Synchronize Pokemon

  • 1/2 chance to find Jolly Nature

  • 1/2 x 1678359/68250000000000 = 1678359/136500000000000

2nd Possibility (y) - 1678359/136500000000000

So best odds are 1678359/136500000000000 (y) and the worst odds are 1678359/7496800000000000 (x).

Credits:
- https://www.google.com/search?client=safari&rls=en&q=google calculator&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8
- https://pokemondb.net/pokebase/295208/how-much-easier-is-it-shiny-hunt-with-shiny-charm-than-without
- https://www.calculatorsoup.com

by
This is good, but there are some errors in your calculations:

First of all, the chance of a random IV being perfect is 1/32; the range of 0-31 is inclusive, making for 32 possible values including 0.
Secondly, there are 25 natures, and therefore a 1/25 chance of getting the right nature without Synchronize, not 1/16.
Third, although I can't blame you for getting this wrong, as this is much more obscure, the way the game ensures perfect IVs is a bit complicated. Here's what the game does, if you're too lazy to read, I have the short version in the paragraph under it:
The game generates a regular IV spread at random, just like every other Pokémon, then checks if it has at least the required number of 31s. If it doesn't, it maxes out the highest imperfect stat(s) until it does. For example, say that the game needs to generate a Pokémon with at least 3 perfect IVs, and generates a spread of 26/5/28/17/31/19. The game will then change it to 31/5/31/17/31/19, maxing out the two highest imperfect stats to get three perfect IVs.

Because of this, the only way of getting a 6IV Pokémon is if the initial spread rolled is perfect, which is the same as it would be for any other wild Pokémon, a 1/1,073,741,824 chance (for IVs alone).
Why bother with the in-depth calculations? There is NO WAY that this thing is legit. Still, I do respect the amount of work you put in to this.
Thanks for the efforts, but long story short: it's cracked.
Actually, the odds are like 4x worse than I thought (thanks to KRLW890)