PokéBase - Pokémon Q&A

# What were the odds of me getting two full odds gen 4 starters in less than 10 resets apart?

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Hahahahahahahahahahahahaha self explanatory

• HeartGold SoulSilver specifically, so I found three starters per reset
• odds are 1/8192 (3/8192 since hgss?)
• I don’t know the exact number. I found the starter in one game, played a bit, booted up another save and almost instantly found another shiny Cyndaquil. I personally believe it was only three.
• Bonus points if you can calculate the odds for me finding cyndaquil both times instead of the others
Seriously, you should ask me these on Discord, instead. At this point, it almost feels like point-coordination...
I’ll just lose them on discord :weary: and it’s my way to flex my epic hunts

I just know you’re the one who’s likely going to answer since you’re the mathematician no one else does math on the site

Okay, the formula for finding the probability of getting 2 shinies within a certain number of encounters is this: (1 - (inverse odds)^(total attempts - 1))^2. If you really want me to explain why it's this formula, I can explain it in a comment, otherwise just trust me on this one.

Odds within three resets (nine Pokemon seen):
(1 - (8191/8192)^8)^2 = 9.52859782e-5% or 1/1,049,472.

Odds within ten resets (thirty Pokemon seen):
(1 - (8191/8192)^29)^2 = 0.00124891265% or 1/80,070.

Bonus! Odds of Cyndaquil specifically within three resets (three Cyndaquil seen):
(1 - (8191/8192)^2)^2 = 5.9597369e-6% or 1/16,779,264.

Edit: Just double-checked my math and it looks like my formula was slightly off. Fixed.

by
edited by
wow, you are very smart
Daaaaaaaamn ty got lucky

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