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What are the chances of finding a Stone compared to finding a Drilbur/Excadrill or a Gem in Swirling Dust?

5 votes

Bascially what are the chances for all of them.

Example: I run into a Thing of Swirling dust,
What are the chances that I'll get a Stone? ( Ex. Water stone Fire stone )
What are the chances that I'll get a Gem? ( Ex. Fire Gem Fighting Gem )
What are the chances that I'll run into a Pokemon? ( Ex. Drilbur, or Excadrill )

asked Aug 19, 2011 by Josh

1 Answer

1 vote
 
Best answer
answered Aug 20, 2011 by Sh!nyFlygon
If each item has an equal likelihood of appearing (which it should) and each outcome is independent of one another, then based purely on items:

(9 stones/26 possible items (gems+stones)) = 34.6%
Odds of obtaining a specific item: 1/26 = 3.846%

However, you also have a chance of encountering Drilbur and Excadrill. I don't know the chances, but if we treat it as an outcome that is just as likely as an item (I slightly doubt this is the case) then:

Chance of obtaining a stone: 9/27 = 33.33%
Chance of obtaining a specific item: 1/27 = 3.7%

I'm inclined to say that encounter of Drilbur is between 30 and 50%, but I'll just leave it as 3.7% as it'll just drop the stone chance by 3 to 11% and specific item chance by 1% if I did calculations correctly.

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