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What natures determine what Wurmple evolves into?

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What natures make Wurmple evolve into Silcoon
What natures make Wurmple evolve into Cascoon

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The Wurmple factor is not determined by Nature, but by the Personality Value.

Wurmple's evolution does not depend on time of day, despite what many guides say. In fact, the evolution is determined by taking pw % 10. If the remainder is less than 5, Wurmple will become a Silcoon, and if it is greater than or equal to 5, it will become a Cascoon.

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I thought the evolution was determined attack and defence?? :/
What about clarification? I posted my source.