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[Curiosity + Calculations] What is the probability of that?

2 votes

2 Weeks ago I had an epic case of epic luck.
In Twist Mountain I saw a shiny Cryogonal, captured it with the first dusk ball without weakening, the nature was modest and it had 31 SpAtt IVs, 31 Speed IVs and nice HP IVs.
Yes, I'm a very lucky person.
Because I'm curious, how were the chances of that happening?
It was winter at that time so I had a 5% change of encountering a Cryogonal.

By the way, it it at lvl 100 now with 252 SpAtt EVs and 252 Speed EVs. If someone is curious I can post the stats ;)

asked May 8, 2011 by dr_clock
edited Dec 29, 2011 by Speed freak
By the way, I seem to have ridiculous luck with my Pokémon.... I have a modest Reuniclus, a modest Kyurem, a modest Vanniluxe, a modest Hydreigon, a modest Victini, a modest Volcarona and a lot more...
with awesome HP DVs, 31 SpAtt and 31 Speed DVs....
That cannot be normal! T-T-T-That is damn awesome!

Also the same for attack stat with a Conkeldurr, a Serperior, a Gigalith and some other ones.... I prefer the SpAtt stat... lol I almost only have sweepers^^
Are you using a Modest Pokémon with Synchronize? :D
No actually. But, does that really work?
Would be awesome then. Would save me a shitload of time.
Not using any Pokemon with Synchronize actually
IVs not DVs.
"Commented 7 months ago"
DVs is what we usually call em in German (actually DV = Determinant Value)

1 Answer

3 votes
 
Best answer

1:8192 * 1:20 * 1:25...
MUCH lesser than 1:4 096 000
so, CONGRATZ!

PS: Not counting those IVs, coz I don't know the chances...but it's probably...really little chance. Also, I wasn't counting the capturing chances

answered May 8, 2011 by DarthDestiny
=D
me @ lucky!
Well some guy gave me a shiny genesect for a ditto
It was hacked, genesect is not avalable yet
@james: I wouldnt be proud of a hacked pokemon
the chance of getting specific ivs are always 1/(32x32x32x32x32x32)
but only counting spatk,hp and spd, it is 1/(32x32x32)=0.003%, only counting the ivs.
BTW, 1:8192 is not the same as 1/8192