What is the chance of getting a shiny after completing the PokéDex and using the Masuda Method?

Question

I would say 1/454, because -> masuda method = x3, and shiny charm is x3,
So that would mean 3x3/4092 = 9/4092 = 1/454
Right?
For the masuda method I am using a Korean ditto and a German treecko FYI.
Correct me PLEASE if I am wrong because I already hatched freaking 213 treeckos :p (generation 6)

Comments

Makes sense to me :)

Answer 1

So basically, every Pokemon has a personality value attributed to them, which is used to determine a Pokemon's shininess. I don't know (or care) about how the math works but here it is if you understand it. Based off this formula, the standard probability of encountering a shiny in Gen VI is 1/4096. (But 1/4092 is only 0.0000002% off 1/4096 so your guess wasn't that big of a mistake lol)

When the Shiny Charm is obtained, every Pokemon you encounter has another two extra personality values generated for it, essentially giving you two more chances to make that Pokemon shiny. This takes the probability from 1/4096 -> 3/4096. Note, it's not really 'multiplying' the chances; it's just adding two extra personality values.

So Pokemon bred via the Masuda Method are simply generated with another five personality values along with the two of the Shiny Charm. This brings the value to 8/4096, which when simplified, becomes 1/512 (0.002%). This is proven by the Burning__Karma's answer. Hooray! I'm not a failure.

In Gen V

The Masuda Method adds 4 personality values and the Shiny Charm still adds 2, so Shiny Charm + Masuda Method would be 7/8192 or ~1/1170.

Hope I helped. :)
Source, Source, Above link,

Comments

Well this was a way better answer than mine XD

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Not that hard

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Lol my prediction wasn't THAT off :D

Answer 2

Without the shiny charm the chances for a shiny using masuda method is 683 because the rates of masuda method were increased from the last generation.

Now this is where the shiny charm gets pretty strange.

Normally the shiny charm makes the chances of getting a shiny 3x higher like you said. However, according to this smogon study it only increases the chances to 1/507-527. This is the most concrete evidence I could find for the effects the shiny charm has on the masuda method.

Side note: You won't always get your shiny in your first 500 eggs so don't be too worried if it's taking you too long. You should just keep trying to get it!

Sources:
Knowledge and This Smogon Study

Comments

Thanks :) just another 100 to hatch...