PokéBase - Pokémon Q&A
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I want to know if I should plan to catch one before winter break is over.


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The chances of encountering Toxicroak are 1/32, or 0.03125, or 3.125%. It is available after you get the National Dex blah blah blah and can appear at any time of day. In Platinum it is the rarest post-National Dex encounter. It shares this drastically low encounter rate with Tangela, Tropius, and Yanma.

It's also been asked here.

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But is it 1/32 for each area or the whole zone? I'm confused. *sumwun hurt itself in confusion!*
It has a 1/32 chance of appearing as a changing Pokémon (if you add all of the changing rates for Platinum it equals 32). So it has a 1/32 chance of appearing anywhere in the Great Marsh.

*Astro used Persim Berry on sumwun*