Masuda Method odds of 1,000 Pokemon?

Question

I currently am Shiny hunting and using the Masuda Method and the shiny charm in Sword and Shield, thus far my first shiny egg took me 1090 eggs to hatch a shiny Pokemon. Am I doing something wrong? or are these odds normal? My real question is, should I keep grinding till I get to the 1,000 egg + mark or should I have reset the parents at the nursery and try again in hopes that 1/512 will be a shiny Pokemon?

Answer 1

You’re not doing anything wrong, this is just how probability works. Similar to how, if you flip a coin, you’re not guaranteed to get a heads if you flip it twice, even though it’s a 1/2 chance. Shiny hunting works the same way (although this would be more like rolling a 512-sided die). Even with the best odds, you may still need to hatch thousands of eggs before getting a shiny, or you might get it in less than 10.
I will say that going over 1000 for a 1/512 hunt is rare, so if you want to hunt more shinies, you’ll probably get it much earlier than that next time. And no, changing out the parents is unnecessary and doesn’t impact your odds in any way.

Comments

Thanks for the responding to my question, I had 2 in a row where I went into the 1,000 + mark and the current one I'm shiny hunting is now at 610 eggs and no shiny. I must be a unlucky shiny breeder then

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Oh, wow. Hope you get some luckier hunts soon, then!

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Thanks KRLW890, I'll do later tonight another batch of egg hatching and see what occurs