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They can only be found in three locations, one of which being the place that you get Spoink, which I don't want. route 112 and Firey Path, meaning I'd have to catch both, one of each, on those two locations to get a secure Spoink, I did some research, and realized that Machop is far more common on 112 than Firey Path, while Numel has the same encounter rate(of this site, we don't have specific percentages for the older Gens), so, what would be the chance of my first encounter on Route 112 being a Machop, and my first encounter on Firey Path being a Numel (keep in mind this is for Sapphire). I just want to know how rare/ hard it'll be to get Spoink. Also, as a side question, is Camerupt a good fire type, I mean I have a good grass type(as of now, he might die), and Grass covers both of Camerupt's Weaknesses(also keep in mind that Mega Camerupt wouldn't happen as this is Sapphire, not Alpha Sappire)

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Machops encounter rate on Route 112 is 25 out of 100, and Numels encounter rate in Fiery Path is 30 out of 100, so I guess the answer would be 55 out of 200. I'm bad with pokemon math though don't trust me. If you want this into an answer I will change it into an answer it probably isn't right though.
Or, if I was wrong about the higher encounter rates, list the best possible chance and what I have to do to get those chances.
Well those are just the base encounter rates lol
Why would you want a Spoink when Staryu is easier to catch in a Nuzlocke?
I know now, I realized after asking this that all I had to do was catch a Wailmer in a different place to apply dupe clause. However, Having a Grumpig would have more type diversety, and wouldn't make me have 2 type overlaps(Potential Numel/Camerupt to Swampert, and Starme to Swampert)

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First, this answer assumes that the chance of finding each level is the same. For example, Torkoal's encounter chance is 18% and can be any 1 of 3 levels (specifically 14, 15, or 16), so I assume that the chance of finding each level of Torkoal is 18%/3 = 6%.
Spoink is in only Jagged Pass.
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The other Pokemon in Jagged Pass are Numel and Machop.
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Numel and Machop are both also in Route 112 and Fiery Path.
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Route 112 has no other Pokemon.
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The other Pokemon in Fiery Path are not anywhere else, so you can't catch them in other places and then use species clause to catch Numel or Machop more easily.
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I think this strategy maximizes your chance of finding Spoink. It's important that you go to Fiery Path, Route 112, and Jagged Pass in this exact order, because I think going Route 112 first lowers your chance of catching Spoink.

use a level 16 Pokemon and a repel to catch a Pokemon in Fiery Path. It's 15% Numel, 7.5% Machop, 12.5% Grimer, and 6% Torkoal. There's a 41% chance of encountering something that you must catch. When that happens, the chance that it's a Numel is 15/41, Machop is 7.5/41, and something else is 18.5/41.

catch a Pokemon in Route 112
If you caught Numel in Fiery Path, then you must catch a Machop.
If you caught Machop in Fiery Path, then you must catch a Numel.
If you caught something else, then it's 75% Numel and 25% Machop regardless of whether you use the repel trick.

After these 2 steps, the chance of having only Numel is the chance of catching something else in Fiery Path and catching Numel in Route 112, which is 18.5 / 41 * 75% = 111/328.
The chance of having only Machop is the chance of catching something else in Fiery Path and catching Machop in Route 112, which is 18.5 / 41 * 25% = 37/328.
The chance of having both is the chance of catching Numel and then Machop or catching Machop and then Numel, which is 15 / 41 * 100% + 7.5 / 41 * 100% = 45/82.
111 / 328 + 37 / 328 + 45 / 82 = 1, which means it's possible that I have not yet made a mistake.

catch a Pokemon in Jagged Pass. It's 55% Numel, 25% Machop, and 20% Spoink regardless of whether you use the repel trick.
If you have only Numel, then you must catch Machop or Spoink. There's a 45% chance of encountering something that you must catch, so when that happens, the chance that it's a Spoink is 20/45.
If you have only Machop, then you must catch Numel or Spoink. There's a 75% chance of encountering something that you must catch, so when that happens, the chance that it's a Spoink is 20/75.
If you already have both Numel and Machop, then you must catch a Spoink.

The chance of catching Numel and Spoink is (111 / 328) * (20 / 45) = 37/246.
The chance of catching Machop and Spoink is (37 / 268) * (20 / 75) = 37/1230.
The chance of catching all 3 is 45 / 82 * 100% = 45/82.
The chance of catching a Spoink with this strategy is the sum of the above 3 chances, which is 299/410, or roughly 3/4.

Also Camerupt has low speed and defense stats, which is probably bad for Nuzlockes. Torkoal and Ninetales might be better, but they can't learn earthquake or rock slide.

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Thank you so much, so, use a repel trick for Firey Path, and then just go for the other two since it doesn't matter? Thanks! This definetly helps!
remember to go to Fiery Path first
Gotcha, I'll avoid the grass on 112, which I think comes before Fiery Path, thanks again so much, I wouldv'e thought I'd have a less chance catching all 3, but it turns out it's the opposite, 75% is a great chance. Thanks again!
That's the chance of getting Spoink. The chance of getting all 3 is 45/82, or roughly 1/2.
Gotcha, thanks for clarifying, 1/2 is still good.