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I want an EXACT percentage, or at least an estimate.. Does it differ with the Berry, with the rarer ones having a lower chance of mutating?

My guess - 20%.
I'd rather say -30 %, and -60 % when surprise mulch is used, because I always get mutations. May I be lucky, as well.

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My success rate is 50% with Surprise mulch. Of course you have to match up the Correct berries in order to get a Successful Mutant Species. I have a List of Match-ups here that will hopefully help(Note: Percentages are apparently constant for each berry species)...Oh and Keep bugs OUT!

Apicot Berry: Kelpsy Berry + Wacan Berry
Ganlon Berry: Qualot Berry + Tanga Berry
Grepa Berry: Aguav Berry + Figy Berry
Hondew Berry: Aspear Berry + Leppa Berry
Kelpsy Berry: Chesto Berry + Persim Berry
Liechi Berry: Hondew Berry + Yache Berry
Petaya Berry: Pomeg Berry + Kasib Berry
Pomeg Berry: Iapapa Berry + Mago Berry
Qualot Berry: Oran Berry + Pecha Berry
Tamato Berry: Sitrus Berry + Lum Berry

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