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Everytime you click Rollout, what's the average power you get when it ends?

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Ok, I'm gonna explain this as best as I can...

When you click Rollout, you're locked into it. When the Rollout is over, whether it lasted 0, 2 or 5 turns, you have a combined power of the Rollout. For example, if it lasted 3 turns the combined power would be (30 + 60 + 120) 210 base power. However, Rollout lasting 3 turns has a (0.9 x 0.81 x 0.73 x 0.34) 18.09378% chance of happening, which is above the average of a 16.67% chance of happening.

Therefore, the average end result power of Rollout is not simply ((30 + 90 + 210 + 550 + 1030) / 6) 318.33, because all the possible outcomes have varient accuracies. So what is the true combined average base power of Rollout? If you get what I mean.

PS: Can you put the calculations in your answers please? It would be nice to see how you got the final average.

Thank You!

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Rollout's base power doubles every turn.
On the first turn it's 30 Base Power.
The second is 60.
Then 120, 240 and 480.
@ Indigo

I know it was cumulative frequency :/

1 Answer

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Best answer

Turn 1 average power: 30
Turn 2 average power: 45
Turn 3 average power: 70
Turn 4 average power: 112.5
Turn 5 average power: 186


Now you're proabbly thinking BUT SEMPI THAT DOESN'T FACTOR IN ACCURACY YOU LITTLE NUB >:C

After discussing with DT
>[09:59] @MudoTyphlosion: if you have four turns, you already have to assume it struck four times
[10:00] @MudoTyphlosion: so there's no point in messing around with the accuracy because you have to assume a certain possibility to even have that power
[10:08] %Sempiternus: You're saying
[10:08] %Sempiternus: Because to find the power
[10:08] %Sempiternus: You have to assume that rollout has hit for x amoutn of turns already
[10:08] @MudoTyphlosion: so it's not beneficial
[10:08] @MudoTyphlosion: yes
[10:08] %Sempiternus: There's no actual point in calculating probability for it hitting x amount of turns
[10:08] @MudoTyphlosion: exactly

TL:DR, no point in calculating accuracy

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