Meta Battle Subway PokeBase - Pokemon Q&A

Everytime you click Rollout, what's the average power you get when it ends?

0 votes

Ok, I'm gonna explain this as best as I can...

When you click Rollout, you're locked into it. When the Rollout is over, whether it lasted 0, 2 or 5 turns, you have a combined power of the Rollout. For example, if it lasted 3 turns the combined power would be (30 + 60 + 120) 210 base power. However, Rollout lasting 3 turns has a (0.9 x 0.81 x 0.73 x 0.34) 18.09378% chance of happening, which is above the average of a 16.67% chance of happening.

Therefore, the average end result power of Rollout is not simply ((30 + 90 + 210 + 550 + 1030) / 6) 318.33, because all the possible outcomes have varient accuracies. So what is the true combined average base power of Rollout? If you get what I mean.

PS: Can you put the calculations in your answers please? It would be nice to see how you got the final average.

Thank You!

asked by
Rollout's base power doubles every turn.
On the first turn it's 30 Base Power.
The second is 60.
Then 120, 240 and 480.
@ Indigo

I know it was cumulative frequency :/

1 Answer

2 votes
Best answer

Turn 1 average power: 30
Turn 2 average power: 45
Turn 3 average power: 70
Turn 4 average power: 112.5
Turn 5 average power: 186


After discussing with DT
>[09:59] @MudoTyphlosion: if you have four turns, you already have to assume it struck four times
[10:00] @MudoTyphlosion: so there's no point in messing around with the accuracy because you have to assume a certain possibility to even have that power
[10:08] %Sempiternus: You're saying
[10:08] %Sempiternus: Because to find the power
[10:08] %Sempiternus: You have to assume that rollout has hit for x amoutn of turns already
[10:08] @MudoTyphlosion: so it's not beneficial
[10:08] @MudoTyphlosion: yes
[10:08] %Sempiternus: There's no actual point in calculating probability for it hitting x amount of turns
[10:08] @MudoTyphlosion: exactly

TL:DR, no point in calculating accuracy

answered by
selected by