PokéBase - Pokémon Q&A
0 votes

It happened a long while ago, but I found a shiny Articuno on my HeartGold Version. I threw a quick ball at him, and to my surprise, it stayed inside!

What are the odds of this happening?

EDIT: it was level 50

edited by
I'll take the level to be 70 then :)
Oh ok lol
I did the math, and still got the answer 4, so that didn't matter xD

2 Answers

4 votes
Best answer

Here is the formula for seeing what is the chance that a Pokemon will be captured:

CatchValue = ((( 3 Max HP - 2 HP ) (Catch Rate Capture Rate ) / (3 Max HP) ) Status Modifier


CatchValue is the chance that we want to know

Max HP is the maximum HP that the Pokemon has at the time. Here, I took HP IVs as 18 (average) and EVs as 0, and a neutral nature. This ends with Max HP as 159.

HP stands for the amount of HP the Pokemon has at that very moment. Since this is the first turn, the Articuno was not damaged, and the HP is the same as Max HP i.e. 159

Catch rate is the rate at which a Pokemon is usually captured. Articuno's is 4

Status Modifier is the status the Articuno has at that time. Here we take that as 1, as it is the first turn.

Most importantly, Capture Rate is the chance at which a ball can capture a Pokemon. Since this is a Quick Ball and it is the first turn, it's value is 3

After doing all the math,

We get the chance as 4.

So that means it is pretty low, and you got very lucky indeed.

Hope I helped!

edited by
Articuno's catch rate is 3 though :s
Damn I took three while doing the math, but put four here by mistake xD
Ah okay lol :3
0 votes

You have a 1.598% chance of capturing it per ball. Thus, you have at least a 50% chance of catching it within 44 balls and at least a 95% chance of catching it within 186 balls.