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What is the chance to catch Riolu? (2-4 health)

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This question is a little vague, so I'm going to have to make some assumptions.

  • This is in Sun/Moon, meaning that the Riolu is being encountered at level 52.
  • You are using a standard Poké Ball.
  • Riolu is not affected by a status condition.
  • Riolu is at 2% of its HP.

Using the Catch Rate Calculator for Gen VI (although the standard Poké Ball catch rate is unchanged in Gen VII), a Riolu under these conditions has a catch rate of 39.577%.
With False Swipe your odds rise a tiny bit, up to 39.758%.

If you Paralyze this Riolu, the catch rate rises to 53.644%.
With False Swipe, it rises to 53.885%.