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I’ve caught two Nihilego at 100% HP with no status condition in only one or two Dive Balls, when other balls would break almost immediately. Was I just lucky, or does Ultra Deep Sea count as “underwater”?

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According to Serebii, No.
Source: https://www.serebii.net/itemdex/diveball.shtml
However, even if it did, all UB catch rates are 1/10. That means that dive ball's catch rate would be 7/20. that is still lower than a pokeball. But, I've caught Nihilego at full hp with a dusk ball first try, and I've caught Regice in a beast ball, so this doesn't seem very unlikely to be possible.

Edit: I remember reading that dusk balls don't work in Ultra Caves in the daytime, so I don't think they'ed increase the dive ball's effect in the Ultra Sea.

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Blah Blah, Why Game freak do it.