PokéBase - Pokémon Q&A
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Like, since there's three of them, and you see them all at once, so per encounter since there's 3 and the odds are 8192.

Like, would that mean my odds are like 0.03% per reset or am I really bad at math

3/8192 is 0.0003662109375 so about a 0.00036 chance of happening. Those aren't good odds. Howver I've watched two different YouTube videos by Smallant and Adrive where the first one got in 400 resets and the second got it in 15000 resets
For a percentage you multiply by 100 i believe
Oh that's right. Duh. I'm in middle school, lol.

2 Answers

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Best answer

I've calculated and recalculated these values in particular, so here they are:
The chance of finding a shiny starter is A + B + C, where A is the chance of one Pokemon being shiny, B is the chance of two starters being shiny, and C is the chance of all three starters being shiny.
The chances of B and C happening are almost negligible, but for the sake of accuracy (and lowering the estimated amount of time), I will incorporate these values. (for the records, the chance of finding one shiny Pokemon is 1/8192.

A = 0.00000000018189894
B = 0.00000148993422000
C = 0.01220405120000000
(these are all probabilities)

Therefore, the probability of finding one shiny starter is 0.01220554131611894%.

Each soft reset gives you that chance of finding one. Now, with a bit more calculations, we can determine the approximate number of tries it'll take to find a shiny starter.
To do this simply, just enter XX/0.01220554131611894 into google, where XX is the percent you want.

For example..

After your 4,096th reset, you're more likely than not to have found a starter by this point.
After 7,373 resets, there's a 90% chance that you'll have found a shiny starter.
Just 800 more, and you have a 99% chance..you're basically guaranteed to find one by this point.


I hope this was what you're asking, lol. Hope this helps :P

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Is this the same for resetting 5 pokemon at the same time at the game corner for example?
I feel like Coco is genius
1 vote

Yes, it would be. Since the odds of getting a shiny Pokemon in gen IV is a 1/8192, or a .01220703%; .012% rounded. So, it's not a lot. Since you are encountering 3 Pokemon at the same time, each has that 1/8192 chance, so It'd be a 3/8192, or a .0366% for each soft reset. And sadly, no, percentages and probabilities are different. Say you have 1/8192 for a shiny. You could SR 10,000 times and still not have it shiny, because each encounter has the 1/8192. I did Lugia in SS, didn't, get it until 12,777 SR's.

Good luck on your hunt!
I'm on 700 for starter in HG.
Happy Shiny hunting,