PokéBase - Pokémon Q&A
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i found a shiny basculin about 3 hours ago, but it used final gambit and fainted itself.


2 Answers

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Best answer

>Does 1/8192 chance mean I will find only 1 shiny in 8192 tries?

As a short answer;

No it doesn't

Probability by dummies, for dummies, ie. KoD

Probability is a hard concept to completely wrap your head around, and I'm not even sure if I get it fully, however the concept that say a 1/5 chance means you will definitely get it in 5 tries, is an incorrect one imo. Why?

The only case in which that would be true would be for example in this scenario;
You have 8192 Pokémon
One of them is shiny
Every time you catch one that isn't shiny, you put it in your box. So after one try if it isn't shiny you only have 8191 Pokemon, after two tries if it isn't shiny yet you only have 8190 Pokemon left and so forth - therefore the amount of Pokemon becoming less and less, and since there is a limit to the amount of Pokémon you are able to catch, You will definitely find a Shiny in 8192

The 'probability' in your question is more like;
You have 8192 Pokémon
One is shiny
Every time you catch one which isn't shiny, you have to release it back into the wihle - therefore keeping 8192 Pokémon every single time you attempt to find and catch one, therefore preserving the probability each time - so it is IMPOSSIBLE to garuntee that you will find the Shiny out of the 8192 Pokémon if you try 8192 times.
That means each time you enter a battle you will have 1/8192 chance - Each battle does not affect the previous one, and each chance is individual - so you will always have a miniscule chance technically.

The difference is, the more times you try, the more chances you give yourself to find it - so I would say, you could probably find a Shiny in 8192 tries. However, you do not increase your chances each time, so it is not garunteed.

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Just because it's 1/8192 doesn't mean that you will get it in that many tries, but I'm very sure if you try that many times you will get a shiny.

It's hard to explain probability...

"but I'm very sure if you try that many times you will get a shiny."

Technically incorrect.
yeah, I guess you did a better job explaining probability than I could have ever done xD