What is the chance of a Pokemon restoring it's condition with full affection?

Question

It's known that if you have full affection (five hearts) with any Pokemon in Pokemon Amie, that they can heal their own sleep, frozen, burn, paralysis or poison status condition, and also it can trigger a Sturdy ability-type of move where it survives a brutal attack with one HP, but what is the chance of this being triggered in said events?

Comments

It's not unanswerable, if we use coding and game-hacking to find it or SEVERAL tests, like for the Hidden Ability chance of Horde Pokemon question.

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Why would you need to know this? In game Amie is pointless to calculate as even with a 99% of happening, it may fail. In competetive Amie is disabled so it is pointless there as well :/

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I wouldn't like to know when it happens. But,when it does I'll be happier as it is a Surprise :)

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@Mr Gamaken: I want to know because this is important, it's not a little trivia question. What's your deal anyway?

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Nothing. Now that's it been answered it doesn't really matter. Knowing why you would want to ask this wasn't against you.

Answer 1

It is 69%

Just kidding, let's get serious.

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I tested this, only took me half an hour.

I tested this 50 times using a Flame Orb, not including the first turn when the Pokémon is inflicted with a burn. Out of those 50, 15 times the Pokémon healed itself and 35 times the Pokémon didn't. So contrary to popular belief, there is probably a lower chance of it healing than not.

Because I did it 50 times, I will times both numbers by two, to get it out of 100:

15 x 2 = 30
35 x 2 = 70

So there probably around a 30% chance that the Pokémon will restore its own status condition, and a 70% chance that it will not.

This is also backed up by the fact that this is the same chance of reeling a Pokémon in with a rod.

If you want me do it 100 times, that's fine, but I'm sure this is close.

Edit: I did it another 50 times; the Pokémon healed itself 11 times and did not 39 times. So if we add this to the original numbers:

11 + 15 = 26
39 + 35 = 74

So the chances are 26% of healing and 74% or not, so the actual chance is probably in between 25-30% for curing the condition.

Comments

Also your theory is kind of wrong, because the flipping of a coin is up to physics, not exact coding, so it depends on how hard you flip the coin and what kind of surface it hits. If you flipped a coin 100 times with the exact same power and on the exact same surface, the result should be close to 50/50. Because there is an exact same chance of the Pokémon healing itself every time, same circumstances, then if you test it the rough chance should come out.

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Not really.
Probability rules means that technically, each time a Pokemon heals or doesn't heal themself, there's an increased or decreased chance of it happening again, since it happening twice in a row is obviously lower than just once.

Also, close to 50/50 has alot of variation. It can easily go to something like 60-40 which is an entirely different chance compared to 50/50.

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Also, editted to clarify some things.

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I'll keep it for a while and see if any more answers come.

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Congrats Crimson u answered properly:)