PokéBase - Pokémon Q&A
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exactly the same personality value, or do they just need to have the same sprite?
Exactly the same personality value
Which game are you asking about? Levels depend on that.
Pokemon moon

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Assuming you look at only 2 wild Spindas from Ten Carat Hill and don't use anything to influence chances, the first Spinda has a 2^-12 (aka 1/4096) chance of being shiny. The second one has another 2^-12 chance.
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I think Spinda's spots are determined by a 32 bit number, so the second Spinda has a 2^-32 chance of having the same spots as the first.
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The second Spinda has a 1/25 chance of having the same nature as the first.
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Wild Spindas can be between levels 10 and 13, so the second Spinda has a 2^-2 chance of having the same level as the first.
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The second Spinda has a 1/2 chance of having the same gender as the first.
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The chance that all of these happen at once is the product of all the chances, which is 2^(-12-12-32-2-1)/25, which is close to 1/1.44115188E19.

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