PokéBase - Pokémon Q&A
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I've been playing for a long time, and I've only ever gotten two lucky trades. I love my Lucky Shiny Pokemon and I want more. What are the odds (or percentage) of obtaining a lucky friend after sending a gift?


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According to multiple sources I have read, the odds aren't known, but they are estimated to be around 5%.
Source: https://pokemongohub.net/post/news/2020-lunar-new-year-lucky-trade-odds-are-around-9-now/

However, quick note. There was an article published a little over a year ago that contains some interesting data. Apparently, when a trade is conducted, it looks at the age of the oldest Pokémon being traded. If it is less than a year old, it has an 5% chance of being a lucky trade. A year to 2 years is 10%, 2 years to the August 2016 is 25 Percent. Finally, any Pokémon caught between July and August 2016 have a 75% chance of becoming a Lucky Trade. Also, if you have less than 10 Lucky Trades, it is guaranteed to get a Lucky Trade if you meet the 75% odds. However, this was in 2019, so it may have changed, but I doubt it.
Source: https://thesilphroad.com/science/chance-of-lucky-trade/
Hope this helps!

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With that all said, the Pokemon Go Lucky Friend odds are still being hotly debated. This feature only arrived on April 8, so researchers at The Silph Road Reddit page are still trying to determine how it works, such as in this thread.

Right now the general consensus is that the likelihood of becoming Lucky Friends is around 5%. This means that, on average, players are finding that the only become Lucky Friends once for every 20 gifts opened, Raids or Gyms completed, or Trainer battles won.


Hope I helped!

As good as this answer is, I don't think it's really up to date or accurate. It's been implemented since at least 2019, as I first got my first lucky Pokemon in early 2019, and I haven't gotten any since. I open 50+ gifts a day, so that contradicts the average of 20 gifts for lucky friends, since it's been well over a year for me and my mom.
Ah. Do you want me to hide this answer?
i mean, regardless it is still is an answer. You can leave it if you want but i just won't BA right away. Someone may find more info, but at the same time this could be the best info out there, yknow?
Yeah, I get that. I'll keep it up unless someone finds better info.