What are the odds of getting a female starter 5 times in a row?

Question

Soft resetting for shiny Mudkip in gen 3 and I currently have a 3 female combo, the max I've had so far was 5.

Pure curiosity here :P

Bonus: how many female mudkips would I need in a row in order for it to equal the same odds of a Gen 3 shiny?

Comments

odds of getting a female starter is probably 1/8.

odds of getting 5 female starters in a row is 1/(8^5).

when you simplify it, you would get it to be 1/32768, which is four times of odds getting a shiny which is 1/8192.

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I believe 12.5%

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I mean getting 5 female starters continuously.

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@Staraptor why would you write 1/8 as 1/(2^3)?? ...that's just 1/8 but more complicated. Also, your math is completely wrong. I don't know what made you think it'd be 1/(8^5), but it should be (1/8)^5.

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both are literally the same.

https://imgur.com/a/xOzjQvB

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Oh whoops, they are, but why did you use parenthesis there?

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Should I remove them? However, it was a comment, not an answer.

Answer 1

To calculate this, it's just 12.5%^5, which is 0.003051757%. This is actually rarer than a shiny Pokemon, which is 0.012207031% in Gen 3. Getting four female starters in a row would be closer to the rarity of a shiny Pokemon, with a 0.024414062% chance to happen.

Comments

*internally cries*