What is the chance of finding a Shiny female starter in Gen 4?

Question

I tried googling this, but all I got were chances of a female starter or chances of a shiny starter. I want to know the chances of getting both a shiny, female starter (mostly because I'm soft resetting in Platinum for Chimchar and got really curious). Thank you!

Comments

Well only 1/8 starters are female, so it should be 8X rarer than a normal shiny.

Answer 1

In Gen 4, the chances to get a shiny female starter is 0.001525878%.

Comments

Sources: https://bulbapedia.bulbagarden.net/wiki/Turtwig_(Pok%C3%A9mon) https://bulbapedia.bulbagarden.net/wiki/Shiny_Pok%C3%A9mon I think this answer assumes the 2 chances are independent, which might not be true. @Taco Are you sure they're independent?

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How could either gender or shininess be dependent? Shininess can happen with both genders of Pokemon, can it not? It's been a while since I did anything with statistics, so I might be misinterpreting something, but why would shininess be determined based on gender?

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They're both based on personality, so it's possible that males and females have different shiny chances.