What were the odds of getting a female shiny Eevee in 2536 encounters in Gen 4?

Question

once again asking dumb questions

dallas found a female shiny eevee in 2536 encounters hgss and said "what are the odds" and now I'm curious sksksksk

Edit: he used the game corner, full odds

Comments

Is it without PokeRadar or with it?

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Who is dallas

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https://clips.twitch.tv/CrackySuperPandaDuDudu-C7cRog0axiN1RR8t

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Oh I know who Supreme rk9 is

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Not to be dramatic but I’d die for him he’s so precious

Answer 1

The chance of getting a shiny Eevee in Gen 4 is 1/8192, while the chance of getting a female Eevee is supposed to be 1/8, but due to a programming quirk, is rounded to 12.11% (as opposed to 12.5%). Multiplying these, we find that the chance of a female shiny Eevee (in any single encounter) is 0.001478271484375%.

To find the cumulative chance after 2536 encounters, we run it through the cumulative equation, B(n,p), and get
1 - (1 - 0.00001478271484375) ^ 2536 = 3.68%

Comments

Krlw my math hero

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https://bulbapedia.bulbagarden.net/wiki/Gender#In_Generations_III_to_V

Shouldn't it be 12.11% instead of 1/8?

Answer 2

Correct me if my math is right.

1 / 8192 x 100 = 0,1220703125% chance (Shiny odds)

0,1220703125 / 2536 x 100 = 0,000481349812697% chance of finding a shiny after 2536 encounters.

Comments

Why do you divide by 2536?

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"Correct me if my math is right" lol