What are the chances of Blizzard hitting, freezing and critical hitting a Pokémon after two Double Teams?

Question

I was training my Absol in BW2 at Dragonspiral Tower and I fought a wild Vanilish, it had missed its Blizzard two times in a row and I used those turns on double team and then night slash the next turn which didn’t one shot it . Anyway due to Absol’s frailty I had a focus sash on it luckily, but this darn Vanilish managed to hit Blizzard after I had used double team twice before and Night Slash the turn before this hit, and not only did the Blizzard hit despite my evasiveness boosts, but it landed a critical hit and even froze my Absol, which only survived thanks to my focus Sash, at that point I had turned off the game and I haven’t touched it. Keep in mind there was no hailstorm active. I’ve also had extremely horrible luck in other Pokémon games but this takes the cake.

Comments

Do you want the chance of the whole battle happening the way it did or just that one turn?

Answer 1

After a +2 Evasion Boost, Blizzard will have a 42% chance to hit (.6 x 70).
Blizzard has a 10% chance to freeze the target.
There is a 1/16 chance in Gen 5 for a Critical hit to occur.

Multiply these and you get 21/8000 or a .2625% chance for Blizzard to hit, Freeze and critical hit on the same move.

If you want the chance for the entire battle, please comment.

Comments

It wasn't in a Double Battle though.