What are the odds of finding a Shiny Marill in the 5th Radar Scan in Platinum?

Question

So I was Radar-chaining for Marill in Route 212, and immediately got a sparkling grass containing the shiny Marill in my 5th Radar Re-Scan! What are the odds of this happening?

(Btw by radar re-scan, you know how the Pokeradar immediately re-scans the grass area after you faint/catch the Pokemon from the rustling Radar grass, right?)

Comments

Congrats!

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Are you chaining for a Shiny Marill or not? If not I'm going to hide my answer. Your odds at 0 chain length is 8 (Relative Odds) 0.012% (Probability) and 0.049% (Shiny Probability per Radar).

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Yes, i was chaining for Shiny Marill because I've got nothing better to do :p

Answer 1

If your chain length is 5, your relative odds per patch is 10 and the probability is 0.015%. Your Shiny probability per Radar is 0.061%.

Source