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I had a 40 and a 41 chain; no radar resets between

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Do you know how many patches of grass were shaking in each of those sets that had a shiny patch? If not, the best odds we can get are 1/99x1/99= 0.01020304% chance.
four tiles apart, all four grasses i believe

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(1/99x4)x(1/99x4) = 0.163248648% chance of getting two of them back to back. It seems pretty high, but thats all it is when the odds are 1/99.

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If you were not to have a chain, it will be 1 in 16744464. With a chain of 40, there is a 40x chance. So if you were to have a chain of 40, the chance of back-to-back shinnies are 1 in 10465.29.

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