PokéBase - Pokémon Q&A
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I’ve played like 13 hours and no shiny and I’m wondering how long would it take to find 4000 Pokemon.

For the answerer, however you get your numbers for this calculation will be fine as long as it’s explained and logical

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I managed to get 2 just playing the game, but it looks like the game loads pokemon before you can see them and can store some of the ones you miss.
You don’t have to actually see 4000 Pokémon to get a shiny, it’s just a one in 4096 chance that a Pokémon will be shiny when it spawns
This means I cant actually calculate this very well as it’s all luck based
Hope I helped
I’m aware of how probability works. I’m going to convert this answer into a comment because you didn’t answer my question. I want to know how long it would take to see 4000 Pokemon

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