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1 vote
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I know the odds normally are pretty high (1 in 4096, I believe), but while going through the Zubat cave on my X Nuzlocke, I encountered a horde on my first try, and one of the Zubats was shiny!

I'm just curious of the odds of that happening without using honey/sweet scent, and then finding a shiny!

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The reason they are confused is because your question and title are quite misleading! ^.^

2 Answers

0 votes

Well, its 1 in 4096 normally, but encountering five at the same time makes it five times the chance. So its simply a 5 in 4096 chance of encountering a shiny Pokemon in hordes

Hope I helped. :)

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I'm asking what the odds are of both encountering a horde (without honey/sweet scent) and a shiny Pokemon in one go. I know the odds of finding a shiny in a horde, already :) Thanks for taking the time to answer, though!
...Yeah, its 5 in 4096.
Thats just the chance of finding a shiny in a horde, thats not the chance to encounter the horde.
That's the odds of finding a shiny in a horde, but I am asking what the chances are of both encountering a horde without honey/sweet scent, AND finding a shiny in a horde.
OOOOH sorry. xD
I cant find the percentage of encountering the horde battle, but I CAN say that this math is wrong even though you are trying to find the percentage of having shiny inside 5 pokemon. The answer is not 5/4096
If you chang this question into another word, it becomes "what is the percentage of at least one being a shiny in 5 pokes" which is 1 - chance all of them not being shiny. Basically, 1 - (4095/4096)^5 = about 0.122%
Quite surprising that 5/4096 leads to almost the exact answer
As I told Indigo, I am asking about the odds of finding a horde (without honey/sweet scent) AND finding a shiny in one go. Not just the odds of finding a shiny in a horde.
Indigo is technically right. The margin between your formula and her's is minimal. In this case, it makes no real difference.
5/4096 = 0.122 roughly as well. Try punching it into a calculator.
I am not asking what the odds of finding a shiny in a horde is! I am asking what the odds are of finding a horde without honey/sweet scent, AND finding a shiny in one go! (in all honesty, I'm getting tired of repeating myself)
Lunara, I was referring to Mini's calculation that Indigo's chance of simply finding a shiny in a horde was wrong. This has nothing to do with the answer you actually want in the end :P
Okay, sorry. I'm just getting a little annoyed, is all. ;_;
Sempiternus, as I said, his calculation was almost the exact same with the answer.
5/4096 = 0.00122070312
1 - (4095/4096)^5 = 0.00122010722
However, that doesnt mean that the calculation Indigo used is right. This time, it was kind of a luck to have almost the same answer. If you change the question to percentage of having shiny in 10 pokemon, there will be quite a large gap between the actual answer if you do 10/4096
0 votes

The chances of encountering a horde is slim, but with honey or Sweet Scent, it is 100% in grass or caves.

Normally, the chance of encountering a shiny is 1/4096 but due to hordes, it is 5/4096 and simplify that it is 1/819.2.

Happy shiny hunting!

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......
Once again, I am not asking what the chances of finding a shiny in a horde is. I am asking what the odds of both finding a horde without sweet scent/honey, and finding a shiny at the same time.
It tells nowhere about the chance of encountering a horde battle, but if it does, the chance will be "chance of encountering horde battle * 0.00122 * 100 (%)"