PokéBase - Pokémon Q&A
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I know how it works, if the numbers match up with the Pokemon ID...but what exactly is the chance in Platinum? #TooLazy4Math #SempitheHumanCalcualtor

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2 Answers

2 votes
Best answer

K, so here's what GameFAQs told me. First, the number of possible ID numbers.

Granted, there are 65,535 possible lottery numbers / IDs, so your chances still aren't very good, but you may get lucky.

That's quite a few. The gravity of that many possibilities below.

>[So the odds of winning the Jubilife Lottery are **N/10^5**] where N is the number of different OT numbers you have:
The winning numbers change every day, so on average it would take (10^5)/2 days (or 136 years) to win one Master Ball without trades (and average one Master Ball every ~274 years.)

Dang. That's, like, five generations of PXs. Here's the same statistic from a different source for verification:

Now, in Platinum, you can have a maximum of 18 PC boxes that hold 30 Pokémon each. 18 x 30 = 540. You can also hold six Pokémon in your party, so the number goes up to 546 Pokémon maximum. If, by some impossible feat, you managed to get 546 Pokémon with different ID no.'s, let's see how that affects your odds.

10^5 = 100,000
N = 546
546/100,000 = 0.00546

This means your chances of getting a Master Ball, with as many possible different ID numbers, is about 0.005, or 5 in 1000, or 1/200, or 0.5%.

Of course, you likely won't get that many different IDs, so here's your chances with only Pokémon you've caught:

N = 1
1/100,000 = 0.00001

So, your chances alone are a mere 0.00001, or 1 in 10,000, or 0.001%. Good luck!

I am not a mathematician. If I erred, please inform me.

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Checked another source and it turns out the formula was correct in the first place… I don't want to do more math ;~; Editing now…
*gasp* too much brainpower for a weekend…
1 vote

There are 5 digits, which means 100,000 possibilities. The chance is n/100,000, with n being the number of different trainer IDs in your team or PC.