2nd gen: What are the odds of me hatching a shiny Vulpix with a shiny Typhlosion and a Vulpix in the daycare?

Question

NOTE: Unless you understand the breeding mechanics of the second generation of Pokemon, don't bother to try answering this question.

In 2nd gen, shininess was determined by the Pokemon's DVs, another term for IVs. Breeding, as it always has been, passes down the stats of the parents to the child.

I've read that breeding with a shiny Ditto in 2nd gen gives me the chance of 1/64 to hatch a shiny of any Pokemon I breed it with. However, I do not have a shiny Ditto, but I do have a shiny Typhlosion on my Silver version.

I also know that the gender ratio of a Pokemon can effect the shininess, such as a female shiny Typhlosion unable to exist due to the stat calculations not adding up between a shiny and a female.

I have my shiny male Typhlosion with a regular female Vulpix in the daycare. I've read that I might have a 1/128 chance of a shiny, but I'm stumped because the gender ratio is also put into account since a female Vulpix is more common than a male one.

My question is: what are the odds, if any, that I will hatch a shiny Vulpix when breeding a shiny Typhlosion and a regular Vulpix together?

Comments

This is a very interesting question and I am hoping for an answer but I just want to ask.Why would you shiny hunt in gen2?(also hope you hatch your shiny Vulpix)

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I'm very fascinated with shiny pokemon, especially from the very old games. Plus, Shiny ninetales in gold/silver looks stunning to say the least.

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Actually after seeing this question and doing some search about the gen2 shiny mechanics I am going to start shiny breeding with a shiny ditto by using this glitch http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/446340-pokemon-silver-version/55878655

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I've heard of that glitch. After I had posted this question, I managed to actually do it and get two shiny ditto. However, I'm still curious about this question so I'm keeping it up.

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Well good luck with that :)

Answer 1

It is time for some maths. Ohh yeah.

So you have a shiny male Typhlosion. According to Bulbapedia shinyness is based on IVs

HP: 0 or 8

ATTACK: 2, 3, 6, 7, 10, 11, 14 or 15

DEFENSE: 10

SPECIAL : 10

SPEED: 10

Now, we come to breeding. The baby gets its IVs from the parent of the opposite gender, so you need to get a female Vulpix.

The Defense IV is passed, while the Special IV has a 50% chance of remaining the same. Attack and Speed are determined at random, at an approximate 1/15 chance. HP has to be 0 or 8

So 1/2 X 1/15 1/16 X 1/15 1/16 X 1/7.5 1/8 = 1/3375. 1/4096 1/512.

It's 1/512, that's the final answer, the final one. Whew.

EDIT: I done goofed up, cheers Unknown Letter Q. I also have messed up on the HP DV. Pardon the constant editing.

Hope I helped.

Comments

That's a way bigger number than what I expected. Thank you!

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It's alright mate.

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That's 0.03% btw

EDIT: Well now it's 0.0002%.

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Percentages always seem less rare. Weird.

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I'm sorry, I should've commented on this answer a long time ago but forgot to until now. In the equation, wouldn't the 1/15 chances be 1/16 chances because DVs could be 0? So 0 would be one number, 0 through 1 would be two, etc. Think that also goes for the 1/7.5 chance, so it'd be 1/8 instead. Would the answer really be a 1/4096 chance instead?

You did a great job on this and I just want to understand your thought process. Thanks :)

Edit: Since the HP DV is also determined by the other DVs, does the 1/8 chance really need to be multiplied into the equation as well? The HP DV is only possible to be 0 and 8, but it can literally be anything if I'm not mistaken (which would make my assumption 1/512). Thanks again.

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Thanks for the comment. Yes after looking back I've noticed my math was wrong, so thank you mate! I looked on Bulbapedia and have no idea how exactly the HP IV is generated, and even googled for a bit but found nothing. Editing and mentioning you, thanks!

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I actually managed to hatch my shiny Vulpix recently! It was a male, too!

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Great job thar

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Just for future reference, the HP DV is calculated by taking all the other DVs and adding a specific number to the HP DV if a different DV was an odd number. Since the attack stat is the only stat that can be odd, HP can either be 0 because attack can be even as well or 8 if the attack DV is an odd number.

Like I meant in my previous comment, the HP DV isn't random, so is it really needed in the equation? Btw, here's the bulbapedia thing on it: http://bulbapedia.bulbagarden.net/wiki/Individual_values#Generation_I_and_II .

Other than that, glad I could help, and this should be the last thing I add to this. Congrats btw Luna :)

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Ah, thanks for the knowledge.. I'll add that in.