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Assume all 5 hits on the attack (e.g something like Skill Link Bullet Seed)

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y tho (filler)
Please don't question his/her/its curiosity.
What generation?
I'm pretty sure everyone assumes the newest generation unless someone says it's not.
King's Rock Beat up Hits six times, more than five times bullet seed. You are curious, ask for beat up.

2 Answers

1 vote

It depends on the generation, but I believe it is calculated like this.

First you have a 3/4 chance of not getting paralyzed. Then you have 1/2 chance of getting through infatuation. After that you need to not hurt yourself in confusion
which is a 2/3 chance.

The probability of you passing through all of those is:
(3/4) x (1/2) x (2/3) = 1/4

So there is a 1/4 chance of you being able to attack. 25%.

After that we calculate the flinch.

(9/10) x (9/10) x (9/10) x (9/10) x (9/10) = 59/100 (0.59049)
41% chance of flinch

Then we need to calculate the probability of you first passing through paralysis, infatuation, confusion and also not get flinched which is 0.25 x 0.59049 = 0.1476225

or 14.76225%

If you're in this situation just switch out.

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You were 0.0001225 (as a difference) or 0.000829819303 (as a ratio) off.
0 votes

This answer assumes the Pokemon you're asking about has to move after being hit 5 times with king's rock and can flinch.
The chance of moving after being hit by an attack from a king's rock holder is 9/10. If you were hit by 2 of them, then the game will determine whether the first hit made you flinch. If it did make you flinch, then you flinch. If it didn't, then the game rolls another number for the second hit. So these are the possible things that can happen: (sorry I had to use periods instead of spaces because spaces might break the text editor)
start -> first hit causes flinching (1/10 chance)
........ -> first hit doesn't cause flinching (9/10 chance) -> second hit causes flinching (1/10 chance)
.................................................................................................. -> second hit doesn't cause flinching (9/10 chance)
Because there was only a 9/10 chance of going to the second hit, all the chances there get multiplied by 9/10. So the chance of not flinching both times is (9/10)*(9/10), or (9/10)^2. So if there were 5 hits, then the chance of not flinching is (9/10)^5.
The chance is further reduced by 1/4 (from paralysis), 1/3 (from confusion), and 1/2 (from infatuation). (the math used here is the same as what I explained earlier) The resulting number is (9/10)^5*(3/4)*(2/3)*(1/2). This equals 59049/400000, or 0.1476225 in decimal form.
There were a lot of sources and I didn't want to list them, but if you want me to verify certain parts of the answer, then I can do that.
The likelihood of moving is 100% because nobody would want to stay and live at a place with king's rocks, paralysis, confusion, and infatuation.

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Didn't see your answer mate. I got the same answer but I'll remove mine if you want me to.