What are the chances of this situation occurring?

Question

I want to know how lucky I was. I was playing Black 2, when the following sequence of events occurred:

1. I was on Route 6, when out of all the different Pokemon species I could have found, I encountered a Spring Form Deerling.
2. This Deerling was shiny. (I do not have the Shiny Charm.)
3. I caught this Deerling on the first attempt with a Quick Ball.

What are the chances, in a percentage, of this happening?

Comments

Try entering the lottery  ;)
Because I think it's a 0.01 % chance

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the other two aren't rare, just the shiny.

Answer 1

• Deerling has a 30% spawn rate (3/10 chance) on Route 6 in B2W2 (for both normal and dark grass).
• The shiny chance without charm is 1/8192.
• On the first turn, there is a 100% chance of catching a Deerling with a Quick Ball.

So the chance is 3/10 * 1/8192, which is a 3/81,920 chance or approximately 1/27,307 chance. Percentage-wise, a 0.003662109375% chance

Sources: Unova Route 6 encounter chances, Pokéball calculator

Comments

Thank you.