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I was doing the masuda method for a shiny froakie, and I hatched a shiny on egg 25. It was HA and female, and the father passed down the ball (a dive ball). What are the chances of this occurring? (I have shiny charm)

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Was the female HA
Did you not read correctly? It was shiny, female, AND HA.
No i thought he was breeding two froakie and the female was HA
Both parents were HA

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I might be completely wrong (I haven’t done math for months lol) but I THINK the way to calculate it is:

1/512= chance of shiny with charm and Masuda Method.

6/10= chance of HA.

1/8= chance of being female.

1/2= chance of father passing down ball.

I might be wrong, but so think you multiply all these numbers together to get roughly 1/13,653, or about 0.007%, or seven out of 100,000, approximately. Like I said, I haven’t done actual math since schools closed but I think I’m right. Can I have some of your amazing luck, please? :)

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Of course, you COULD say the odds of it happening were 100% since it DID happen, but that just makes my brain hurt...
Cool. Thanks!
No problem!
How did you get to 13.653
Well, if you multiply all the factors I listed you get 6/81920, which can be simplified to 3/40960. 3 goes into 40960 13,653.33333333333 times, so I rounded.