I might be completely wrong (I haven’t done math for months lol) but I THINK the way to calculate it is:

1/512= chance of shiny with charm and Masuda Method.

6/10= chance of HA.

1/8= chance of being female.

1/2= chance of father passing down ball.

I might be wrong, but so think you multiply all these numbers together to get roughly 1/13,653, or about 0.007%, or seven out of 100,000, approximately. Like I said, I haven’t done actual math since schools closed but I think I’m right. Can I have some of your amazing luck, please? :)