What are the odds of a random marked, square shiny?

Question

I found a square shiny stufful, and it was marked! It was a random encounter too, since square shinies are more rare in the wild, it must be really rare for a random marked one!

I was wondering the odds?

This is for SWSH btw.

Comments

The odds for square shinies were flipped, they are common now

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Marked is like, 5 percent tho,right?

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It depends. 1/1000 is the rarest, so 0.1% (I think....). The least rare marking that’s not obtained by a special method is 3/50, so 6% (I think, heh). Sooooo which marking does it have?

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The one that is like..... a spoon and a fork? Peckish I think?

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Oh ok that mark. 1/50 chance without the mark charm, 3/50 with it, can only be on Pokémon found in the middle of the day. So that’s 2% without the mark charm and 6% with it.

Answer 1

According to This tweet, "So 65521/65536 wild encounter shinies will be squares, and 15/65536 will be stars."

That is about 99% of random encounter wild shinies will be the square shinies, and the remaining about 1% would be star shinies.

According to Here, marks can range form a 0.1% chance to a 4% chance without the Mark Charm.

So, the odds of a shiny are 1/4096, which is about a 0.02% chance.

This leaves a low and high of about 0.002% chance and a 0.08% chance, I believe

Congrats on your marked shiny, but unfortunately you got the higher odds of the two shiny types. Also note, they are reversed for breeding, and you cannot get marks by breeding.

If anyone wants to fact check my math, feel free, I am by no means the best, but here's all the numbers needed, and all around a nice average.

Check my sources for more detail :3

Comments

The odds of a wild shiny being a square shiny is 15/16. Idk If that math at the top is correct then

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It's 61453/65536