PokéBase - Pokémon Q&A
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Just curious

Was it bred from a female Combee/Vespiquen and another Pokemon in the same Egg Group, or a male Combee and a Ditto?
Let's go with the latter

1 Answer

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Combee has a 1/8 of being Female. Assuming that this isn't Masuda Method, there is a 1/4096 chance of being shiny and a 1/16 chance of that shiny is a Square Shiny. Now, you have a 3/5 chance to pass down that HA to tha offspring. Calculate those lovely odds and you get 0.0000011444 or 0.00011444% chance. However, if you do Masuda Method, your Shiny chances increase to 1/683, which brings your odds to 0.00068631%. Now, let's say you really wanted this Shiny Combee and got the Shiny Charm, bringing those odds to 1/512. Your new odds would be a nice 0.000915527%
Source: Combee pages, pages on breeding, square shiny pages, shiny odds, etc.

If my math happens to be wrong in some fashion, please comment.
Thank you TY!

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I'll pause on editing it then.

"Chance of breeding square shiny: 1/512 * 1/65536 = 1/33554432
Chance of breeding star shiny: 1/512 * 65535/65536 = 65535/33554432

Odds reverse for catching.

Chance of catching square shiny: 65535/33554432
Chance of catching star shiny: 1/33554432"

i'd reccomend giving these a through read. I have 4 boxes of shinies. i pretty much always get star shinies from eggs, and squares from random battles.
other than that, the math looks pretty a-ok
Thank you!  That article is very interesting actually.
I just did the math and the odds for the first percentage is 1/873820 which is insane