PokéBase - Pokémon Q&A
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I wanna know what I’m in for square shiny hunting this.

> There was a beast ball event before 1/15. https://bulbapedia.bulbagarden.net/wiki/List_of_other_event_distributions_in_Generation_VIII
commented 8 hours ago by sumwun
Yeah, but that was only one extra. Not 20
I have something called Nintendo online. It allows me to get more Beast Balls
Oh. I do too, but I didn't know you could get that many.
Yes. I trade. A lot

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Assuming I did the math correctly (I probably didn't), under optimal conditions (500+ KOs, Shiny Charm, target asleep at 1 HP, active Pokemon at or above target's level, and a complete Pokedex), you have approximately a 1/116000 chance of encountering a square shiny authentic Sinistea, and approximately a 21% chance of catching it in a Beast Ball.

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What equations are you using for the chance of catching it?
Don’t think they used the right one for a beast ball.
'target asleep at 1 HP' so probably he did it right for the beast ball
Ah I didn’t realize that 1HP Asleep gives that much of a catch rate increase.