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3 votes

So according to Bulbapedia, the chances of finding a Fake Sinistea in the Old Cemetery ranges from 19% to 13%, while the chance of an Authentic Sinistea remains a 1% chance.

My high school math knowledge thinks that this means that you have a higher chance of encountering an Authentic Sinistea, (since when you encounter Sinistea you don't know if it's authentic or not,) if you're hunting in thunderstorms when Phony Sinistea's encounter rate is 13%. Is this true?

This might help you ty

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2 Answers

3 votes
Best answer

No. Phony and Antique Sinistea are considered by the game to be entirely separate encounters, so the chance of finding Antique Sinistea is always 1% (except during Sandstorm where it can't be found).

You are imagining the game deciding to spit out Sinistea, then deciding whether to make it Antique. That's not what it does. It's 1% of all the possible encounters in the area, not 1% of Sinistea.

The data would be presented differently if the Antique encounter rate were a fraction of Sinistea's total encounter rate.

I'm aware of the context for this question -- the answer is correct, but the percentages it gives are probably not a helpful way to think about the Antique odds.

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Sorry for editing this a few times. First I assumed KRLW's answer said the same thing as the question (wrong), then I assumed the question talks about the 1% being contained within the Phony probability (wrong).
Thanks fizz
0 votes

In short higher the percentage higher the chance of encountering it so the authetic one you say is always 1%.
where as a fake one or a phony one has a highest of 20% encounter rate in a blizzard.