Is there any way to beat TornOgre teams with 100% confidence?

Question

Series 8 is here...
And I Tornadus + Kyogre is one of the strongest cores in the format. (VGC 2021)

As I played against more and more Tornadus + Kyogre teams, I realized that there was seemingly no way to counter it. Is there any way to counter it without resorting to 50/50 situations at all?!?

E.g.
Probably the best solution I’ve found so far is leading with LO Thundurus + Sashed Eleki where you electroweb and max guard/protect with Thundurus turn 1. They will most likely set up tailwind and water spout. Kyogre takes some chip damage and Tornadus hangs on at 33%. Now that Regieleki outspeeds Tornadus, you can electro web again and allow Thundurus to clean up. However, a mere Raichu in the opposing team can stuff this whole process up.

They could also tailwind + protect on turn 1 whilst Thundurus protects then double into the Thundurus slot with Waterspout + Hurricane for the potential KO. If Thundurus is AV, it can’t protect turn 1 and you’re subject to tailwind + Max Geyser. ^Just realized that Max Geyser won’t KO, but then neither can you KO Kyogre and even if you somehow do, anything that switches in is probably enough to Ko it.

If you try fake out + KO Kyogre lead, firstly, they will most likely double protect then dynamax Kyogre, Tailwind and the game starts snowballing. If you use Rillaboom, they can change the terrain by switching in and KO Rillaboom with Hailstorm. If you’re AV and invested a ton into special defense, you’ll only do around 40% to Kyogre and it has another few turns to wreck havoc, not to mention that Tornadus can even pick up the KO on Rillaboom with Hurricane which KOs non-AV Rillaboom.

TL;DR: Is there any way to counter TornOgre without the game coming down to 50 50 plays?

Comments

Utility Umbrella Ferrothorn or Eternatus are the best counters for Kyogre in AG and Ubers. Since hazards aren't important in VGC, possibly Eternatus is the best counter, outside of Chansey and Blissey.

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Kyogre's hailstorm would still do a decent chunk of damage and having to use an entire Restricted slot just to counter Kyogre isn't the best solution....
252+ SpA Kyogre Max Hailstorm vs. 0 HP / 0 SpD Eternatus: 190-224 (88.3 - 104.1%) -- 25% chance to OHKO
I still really like the idea of using a bulky mon to try and tank Kyogre's hits, but sadly, not many (maybe even none) can even perform this feat. Ferrothorn is also KOd by Hurricane + WaterSpout.

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What about using snarl?

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252+ SpA Kyogre Max Hailstorm vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Eternatus: 258-304 (53.3 - 62.8%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Black Sludge recovery
And you can possibly click Mystical Fire/Cosmic Power then stall it with Recover. But as you told that it is one of strongest cores, so why it's not worth it to prepare for it? Also, as sumwun told, why don't you ask in Smogon forums?

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Running 252+ sp.def and 252 HP also means you underspeed most base 100s in the Meta currently which are very popular and you will also be physically weak to something like Zacian. It’s not one of the most popular restricted mons right now, especially with Kyogre, Zacian and some Foul Play/physical Yveltals and set up Xerneas in the meta.

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Okay that make sense, but why you aren't asking in Smogon Forums?

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https://www.smogon.com/forums/threads/vgc-ask-a-simple-question-get-a-simple-answer.3588172/ You will get a much better answer if you ask here, and the mods have themselves told how bad is competitive in our site.

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What about Groudon + Thundurus - T? If the Groudon is slowe, the weather condition will be Drought, weakening all the water moves and reducing the accuracy of thunder and Hurricane. Then you can nail everything with Discharge, which Groudon is immune to

Answer 1

You didn't ask in Smogon, so I did that for you. (stealing sumwun's line)

My favorite way of dealing with this right now is Grimmsnarl's Prankster Light Screen + something to threaten Ogre, but there are of course plenty of other ways. Rillaboom's Grassy Glide is gonna hurt, most offensive Electric-types can Dynamax to take the hit and revenge kill Ogre back, and in general, the duo is a little weak to Fake Out due to Kyogre being choiced, just respect the Kyogre's option to Dynamax if you choose that route.
Dialga is gaining traction right now as being a restricted that, for the most part, can shrug off anything Kyogre can do to it.

Vest Dialga is neat but you can get by with Max HP and [some split of SpAtk and Defensive EVs]. Main reason I try not to use Vest is I always feel like slow sets really want Trick Room, and faster sets would like Protect. Weakness Policy is a common item for it currently

EDIT: Another user posted some more detail about that.

Assault vest or Weakness Policy are my personal favorites. Assault Vest truly solidifies Dialga as a Kyogre counter, however the loss of Trick Room/Protect as options may not be worth as Dialga already handles Kyogre well enough without AV.
I personally lean towards Weakness Policy because it can offset any snarl drops or if Dialga gets Max Quaked. It is a bit awkward you can't have Telepathy and self proc weakness policy, but it's not entirely necessary.

Source [part of it told in PMs]

Hope this helps.

Answer 2

As far as I know?
Frozen inferno is correct!
I'll add torn-orge is a very strong team with Incinaroar,Rillaboom,regieleci and landorus you can hardly pin torn-orge teams down they will always have outs and also a spread damage advantage almost always an up-hill battle I recommend just joining the club.
Fake out is the go to counter but a very slow trick room team is great as well. The Torn-Orge team's are slow usually so you actually need to kill Tornadus before he can tailwind.

Xerneas, Groudon, lunala or scarfed shadow calyrex outspeeds and Ev'd Rayquaza tailwind teams or
If you don't like those teams. choice specs grass type+grass knot or better strong electric type's physical or specs are ideal but then theres landorus "you could possibly trick a ring-target"

Note: You can't counter kyorge with defence! like you would other Pokemon. (Kyorge is a wall-breaker Class) Similar to Pokemon like ursifu or latios you may live a hit but still lose in the end. But you can live a hit with assault vest Water/Grass/Dragon, You can choice Scarf Something but will often need your own tailwind, can also combo moves like Sunny day - Protect+Disable - torment - Erie impulse+Thudurus - electrify - Wide guard - helping hand - swagger/flatter - quash - minimise+starmie - fakeout+roar+setup - light screen+amnesia - endeavour+quick attack - fake-out+substitute - Fakeout+Pranster Screech/Sand attack/Faketears/Scaryface 2 turns -4 stages. can also volt switch to a Pokemon like vested rillaboom. Clearly you can't will-o wisp but you can T-wave and stun spore even just fake-out+spore. blissey+sing, scarfed+sleep powder, hypnosis. lovely kiss.
utility umbrella will cancels out the rains damage boost and accuracy

(switch ins) "AKA Negative momentum status or Damage receiver or Defensive tools/options"
The "restricted" Pokemon kyorge is a great wallbreaker and thus gastradon,ludicolo or chansey may truly be among the only safe "raw" switch-ins in the entire game without light screen or sunny day support.
Notable mentions: Assualt vested/- rillaboom, kingdra, torkoal, groudon, frostmoth, goodra, regice, lunala, dragonite, virizon, Other Pokemon with Water absorb and dry skin can be used but kyorge can thunder if he predicts a very clear switch in.