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Does it always flinch, effectively stun-locking a no guard user or maybe even working with some sort entrainment/skill swap?

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So No Guard doesn't really do anything. Upper Hand already has 100% accuracy and No Guard doesn't do anything unless accuracy is lowered. However, No Guard only gets rid of Accuracy checks, not move mechanics. IF the target doesn't use a priority move, upper hand will fail. IF the target does, Upper Hand will land and flinch the target. This is the move mechanic so no guard does nothing!

Source
https://www.pkmncast.com/classic/2011/6/10/aotw-no-guard.html
https://bulbapedia.bulbagarden.net/wiki/Upper_Hand_(move)

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No guard does let moves hit Pokemon that are using fly, dig, dive, bounce, etc, but it still doesn't let upper hand ignore the priority move check.
To add on to sumwun, it doesn't work because Upper Hand fails rather than misses if the target doesn't use a priority move, and No Guard only affects moves that say '[Pokemon] avoided the attack!' Same with Fake Out before Champions. If you use it after your first turn, it fails rather than misses.