I’ve tried and failed to calculate the minimum speed EVs required for modest Espathra to outspeed a Jolly, max Speed Sneasler.
The trick is that Espathra is able to gain a +1 speed boost after one turn of protect. Can anyone show me the math for Pokemon champions?
Espathra
Sneasler
EDIT: Thanks to @R-The-Great for this answer:
Espathra needs 2 speed EVs and +1 speed boost to counter Sneasler.
If Sneasler has unburden and loses an item, then you need either:
-> 2 speed EVs and +4 speed boosts or
-> 27 speed EVs and +3 speed boosts.
The second option works out quite well to hard counter sneasler. Look at this example 1v1 with 27 speed EVs and a focus sash against sneasler with a focus sash:
Turn 1: Use protect (sneasler uses fake out)
Turn 2: Use lumina crash to break sash (sneasler attacks and breaks your own focus sash)
Turn 3: Use protect
Turn 4: KO unburdened sneasler with a faster lumina crash
Turn 5: baton pass +4 speed boosts to a lucky tank.
Math
Max speed Sneasler
( 140 base + 32 speed EVs ) x 1.10% from Jolly nature = 189 speed.
189 speed x 2 from Unburden = 378 speed.
To beat that, give Espathra 2 EVs in speed and +4 speed boosts.
( 125 base + 2 Speed EVs ) = 127 speed
+1 speed: 127 x 1.5 = 190.5
+2 speed: 127 x 2 = 254
+3 speed: 127 x 2.5 = 317.5
+4 speed: 127 x 3 = 381
OR
Win 1 turn sooner with 27 EVs in speed and +3 speed boosts.
( 125 base + 27 Speed EVs) = 152 speed
+1 speed: 152 x 1.5 = 228 speed
+2 speed: 152 x 2 = 304 speed
+3 speed: 152 x 2.5 = 380
Any more EVs into speed are wasted. For example, max speed Espathra
( 125 base + 32 speed EVs ) x 1.1 from nature = 172 speed
+2 speed: 172 x 2 = 345 (not enough to beat 378 sneasler)
