Meta Rate My Team PokéBase - Pokémon Q&A
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In short, it means that it's random which pokemon it will evolve into. However, once you've caught a Wurmple, the one it will become is fixed in place. If it doesn't evolve into Cascoon you'll need to catch another Wurmple and try again.

More info:

"Personality Value" is a hidden number each pokemon has, which determines a whole bunch of things in the game like gender, nature, ability and whether the pokemon is shiny.

The "mod 10" bit is a mathematical term, which means that a number from 1 to 10 is derived from the personality value. The "≥ 5" bit means that if said number is greater than or equal to 5, then you get Cascoon. If it's less than 5, you get a Silcoon.

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thanks i didnt understand what personality value was
Pokemon is some deep stuff
I still don't get it.
I would've thought it meant between 5 and 10.