What are the odds of slathering honey on a random Honey Tree and the Pokemon you receive being a Shiny Munchlax?

Question

I started playing Diamond again, put honey on a tree, and the six hours will be done 2 hours from now. Just wondering what the odds are.

As a percentage please.

I am asking because I am no bueno at math and am surprised no one has asked this yet.

Comments

Well first there's the ID thing and specific trees blah blah blah and 1% Munchlax chance in certain tree bla blah and shiny odds are like 8000-
Yeah I suk at math too.

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I know that 4/21 trees have a chance to have a Munchlax, there is a 10% chance no Pokemon appears at all, there is a 1% chance if a Pokemon appears that it will be Munchlax if you are on 1 of the 4 trees, and the shiny odds are 1/8192. i just dont know what to do with those numbers

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How many trees are there in sinnoh total? That's essential to the calculations

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21. 4 out of the 21 trees can have a Munchlax

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Ah ok. Give me a second :).

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Not a full answer but while the pokemon is predetermined, the shininess isnt, so if you found a munchlax tree you could just soft reset until its shiny

Answer 1

Ok, let me see what I can do. If I'm incorrect, I'll hide the answer.

First, there are 4/21 locations where the munchlax can be. Of course, the determination of where the munchlax tree is is based on a formula using modulus operations and utilizing your trainer I'd and secret trainer id, however, that does not change the amount of trees there are, therefore making the probability still 4/21.

Next, we have to account for the chance of even getting a munchlax. The chances of getting a munchlax are 1%. This is using bulbapedia.

Finally, we need to take into account the actual shiny odds. In diamond and pearl, the shiny odds are 1/8192. Based off of this, let's do the math.

EDIT: I didn't include the math sorry :(
4/21 * 1/100 * 1/8192 = 0.000000232514881 or 0.0000232514881%

The answer is approximately 2.33 * 10 ^ -7, or 1/4300800

Comments

What's the formula? You state the stuff he already knows and then say this is the answer, but you dont say how you got that answer

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Thank you, would that mean the percentage is 0.00000233 percent?

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I do agree with Ty tho too

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Does this help? Sorry for not including the math.

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Ok thank you

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You have to put "\*" if you want the asterisks to show up, otherwise it just thinks you're italicizing the text. It's a bit annoying since it's not required in the preview, but it is when you post the answer.

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Thank you for fixing the math. I didn't notice that lol. I'll keep that in mind.

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Minor correction, but it's 1/4300800 in fraction form, so yeah pretty low odds!