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# What are the odds of slathering honey on a random Honey Tree and the Pokemon you receive being a Shiny Munchlax?

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I started playing Diamond again, put honey on a tree, and the six hours will be done 2 hours from now. Just wondering what the odds are.

I am asking because I am no bueno at math and am surprised no one has asked this yet.

Well first there's the ID thing and specific trees blah blah blah and 1% Munchlax chance in certain tree bla blah and shiny odds are like 8000-
Yeah I suk at math too.
I know that 4/21 trees have a chance to have a Munchlax, there is a 10% chance no Pokemon appears at all, there is a 1% chance if a Pokemon appears that it will be Munchlax if you are on 1 of the 4 trees, and the shiny odds are 1/8192. i just dont know what to do with those numbers
How many trees are there in sinnoh total? That's essential to the calculations
21. 4 out of the 21 trees can have a Munchlax
Ah ok. Give me a second :).
Not a full answer but while the pokemon is predetermined, the shininess isnt, so if you found a munchlax tree you could just soft reset until its shiny

Ok, let me see what I can do. If I'm incorrect, I'll hide the answer.

First, there are 4/21 locations where the munchlax can be. Of course, the determination of where the munchlax tree is is based on a formula using modulus operations and utilizing your trainer I'd and secret trainer id, however, that does not change the amount of trees there are, therefore making the probability still 4/21.

Next, we have to account for the chance of even getting a munchlax. The chances of getting a munchlax are 1%. This is using bulbapedia.

Finally, we need to take into account the actual shiny odds. In diamond and pearl, the shiny odds are 1/8192. Based off of this, let's do the math.

EDIT: I didn't include the math sorry :(
4/21 * 1/100 * 1/8192 = 0.000000232514881 or 0.0000232514881%

The answer is approximately 2.33 * 10 ^ -7, or 1/4300800

edited
What's the formula? You state the stuff he already knows and then say this is the answer, but you dont say how you got that answer
Thank you, would that mean the percentage is 0.00000233 percent?
I do agree with Ty tho too
Does this help? Sorry for not including the math.
Ok thank you
You have to put "\*" if you want the asterisks to show up, otherwise it just thinks you're italicizing the text. It's a bit annoying since it's not required in the preview, but it is when you post the answer.
Thank you for fixing the math. I didn't notice that lol. I'll keep that in mind.
Minor correction, but it's 1/4300800 in fraction form, so yeah pretty low odds!

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