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I know that chain fishing increases the chance of finding a shiny Pokemon, but how many times do you have to fish for this to happen? Also, how does the probability of finding a shiny Pokemon change?

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The increase in shiny rate when chain fishing is the same as normal Poke Radar chaining:

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Source: Bulbapedia

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Didn't expect that much detail. Thanks.
Keep in mind that's halved for Gen 6.
I asked a question ages ago asking if the Poke Radar chain started at 1/4096 in Gen VI, since the chance of finding a Shiny Pokémon in the wild increased, but everyone said "it's probably the same as in DPPl" -_-

Knew I was right bunch of nubs :P