In Emerald, what's the chance of a Skitty or Nuzleaf outbreak on any given day?

Question

Assuming the clock is running normally and I have not mixed records with any game.
Important note: For those of you that haven't played Emerald, many days there are no outbreaks. I already had two people mess up on their logic.

Comments

Hm.. Let me think, how about Over 9000!

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Kero, pls.

(filler is dumb)

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I'd say it's just completely random.

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I never got the concept of "completely random". If the probability is random, they must generate random numbers to determine the probability. If that RNG is random, they must use another RNG to generate it. With enough calculations, somebody should be able to determine the average chance of getting an outbreak.

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My thoughts are that a machine can generate something truly random, while a human cannot. Eventually the human will fall into a pattern of related subjects, while a computer is free of that limitation.

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But how would it work? Since there are infinite possible numbers, wouldn't the chance of generating a particular number be one in infinity?

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But if theres only, say, 15 possible hordes, wouldn't the RNG choose only a number between 1 and 15?

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Yeah, but what's the chance that it causes no outbreaks? Read the question before commenting.

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I did read the question. I wasn't commenting on the question though, I was discussing random number generation. However, if there can be no hordes then I assume that one or probably more of the possible choices is zero. Although I don't really know any fact about random number generation, I'm just theorizing, so don't quote me :)

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Actually, most randomness is not random at all, it's just humans can't tell how numbers are related very well. Example:

N = 0.23
Y = N/2 (0.115(
X = 8Y

These numbers can seem to be random, but in essence they are not.

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But can a computer create a truly random series of digits? Or are computers, like humans, doomed to fall into patters and related sequences? Has this bunny trail gone on too long? Find out after the break on Mythbusters!

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Some can, but again it comes down to philosophy. Oh god.

"Say 5 random numbers"
"99999"
"You just said the same 5 digits"
"How do you know they weren't random?"

BOOM. I believe some computers are capable, but again true randomness is complicated as ****.

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I though a "true random number generator" was just a program that generates a number within a certain range. If that number is within another designated range, an event occurs. Is there anything more to it?

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^^
Just let the computer choose their damn number. :P

Answer 1

Every time the player wins a battle, there is a ~0.5% (0x147/0xffff) chance that the game will generate an outbreak. This does not apply to the player's first battle, the Wally catching tutorial, link battles, e-Reader battles, the Safari Zone, or the Battle Tower/Frontier. After an outbreak is generated, the television program announcing it will appear the next day. Once the television program has been watched, the outbreak becomes active.

source
That probably explains why I could never get one.

Answer 2

There are seven slots. One can be skit. One can be nuz. Two can be blank. Three can be Seedot.

Therefore 1/7 for each with no record mix.

Comments

But does that mean there's a chance for it to happen every day? I'll hide my answer if sumwun is cool with this answer.

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Does that mean the TV doesn't always inform me about outbreaks? I've been playing for several dozen days and there's never been an outbreak on TV. (all other clock events happen, so it can't be that)

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It is based on RNG, which is calculated by player activity applied to a formula

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So is there a way to check if there is an outbreak that's better than watching TV?