PokéBase - Pokémon Q&A
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  1. IVs are 31/31/15/X/31/0 (The bolded IVs are the IVs
    that I'm aiming for. X doesn't matter, but I'm trying to avoid a
    perfect Sp. Atk IV)

  2. A Lonely nature (I'm using a Sync)

I've been soft-resetting for this Stakataka for a few days now and I'm curious as to how rare this particular one is.

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Is there anything influencing its IVs?
As far as I'm concerned, I don't think it's actually possible to influence IV's on a Pokemon.
I meant stuff like the IVs being more likely to be perfect because of a long SOS chain or because it's an Ultra Beast.
In that case, it’s impossible to influence IV’s on Ultra Beasts except through soft-resetting (the method I’m using). Even then, Ultra Beasts are guaranteed to have 3 random perfect IV’s in any of its 6 stats just like any other legendary Pokémon. There’s no method to make specific IV’s more likely to be perfect on legendary Pokémon/UB’s. It’s all RNG.
so, you wan't a low enough defense to boost another stat? Like attack is what i think your going for? Good Luck, I guess...

1 Answer

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Best answer

TL;DR: very very bad.

Stakataka has three of six IVs that are guaranteed to be perfect. 3 IVs * 6 IVs = 18 different ways the Pokemon can have three randomly-generated perfect IVs. They are listed here, assuming x is a random value:

31/31/31/x/x/x
31/31/x/31/x/x <--- this works if the first x is 15, the second x to last is 31 and the last x is 0
31/31/x/x/31/x <--- this works if the first x is 15 and the last x is 0; lacks perfect SAtk
31/31/x/x/x/31
31/x/31/31/x/x
31/x/x/31/31/x <--- this works if the first x is 31, the second x is 15 and the last x is 0
31/x/x/x/31/31
x/31/31/31/x/x
x/x/31/31/31/x
x/x/x/31/31/31
x/x/31/x/31/31
x/31/x/x/31/31
x/31/x/31/x/31
x/31/31/x/x/31
x/31/31/x/31/x
31/x/31/x/31/x
31/x/x/31/x/31
x/x/31/31/x/31

We'll call the three possibilities that would work possibilities a, b and c. We'll calculate them one-by-one:

  • For a, 1/18 perfect IV options would suffice, and you'd need a 1/32 chance to go in your favour three times. You'd also need the coin toss for Synchronise to work. So:
    Pr(a) = 1/18 * 1/32 * 1/32 * 1/32 * 1/2 = 1/1179648

  • For b, 1/18 perfect IV options would suffice, and you'd need a 1/32 chance to go in your favour twice. You'd also need the coin toss for Synchronise to work. So:
    Pr(b) = 1/18 * 1/32 * 1/32 * 1/2 = 1/36864
    If you're really going for the imperfect SAtk IV, you'll need to add an extra 31/32 chance (we'll call this bA):
    Pr(bA) = 1/18 * 1/32 * 1/32 * 31/32 * 1/2 = 31/1179648 or roughly 1/38053

  • For c, 1/18 perfect IV options would suffice, and you'd need a 1/32 chance to go in your favour three times. You'd also need the coin toss for Synchronise to work. So it's the same as a:
    Pr(c) = 1/18 * 1/32 * 1/32 * 1/32 * 1/2 = 1/1179648

So your chances will be as follows:

  • First, if you'll allow the SAtk IV to be of any value:
    Pr(a + b + c) = 1/1179648 + 1/36864 + 1/1179648 = 17/589824 or roughly 1/34696

  • Second, if you'll only allow the SAtk IV to be imperfect. You will only accept option bA. So your chance is:
    Pr(bA) = 1/18 * 1/32 * 1/32 * 31/32 * 1/2 = 31/1179648 or roughly 1/38053

If you want these rarities in context, the first option is over eight times rarer than finding a random Shiny, and the second over nine times rarer. Long story short, you'll be sat down soft resetting for a very long time if you want this particular Pokemon. :P

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How can you even work that out?
I gave the methods in the answer. Principally, it's pretty basic probability. The numbers you work with are just really big and long. I can explain any particular part of it, if it's confusing.
Wow. Those odds are actually worse than I had expected but the math does add up. I'm still going to soft-reset for a competitive Stakataka, though (preferably the second option but the first option is fine at this point). Thanks for the answer.
No problem, good luck getting the Pokemon you want. Find a Twitch stream or something to do while you're resetting, you'll go insane otherwise lol.