PokéBase - Pokémon Q&A
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I know that they can only be gotten from the man that's focused on rewards, but I want to know the exact chance. This applies for Gold Bottle Caps as well

From this guy's approximates, it is 1.94%. As for Gold Bottle Caps, it is likely the poster was incredibly unlucky, because sites claim that it is possible to obtain gold bottle caps.

Take note this is not an answer because it may not be exact as in the code, just taken from the guy's experimentation.

1 Answer

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0.03% for gold bottle caps and 1.88% for normal from https://gamerant.com/pokemon-sword-shield-digging-duo-odds/

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Where did you get this from? Please tell us where you get the information from when you answer